UFC 116 – Pick’em

We have waited long enough.  Finally the biggest and most important heavyweight fight, in any sport, since Tyson-Holyfield is upon us this Saturday at UFC 116.  And’s the only headlining fight worth mentioning.

Lesnar-Carwin is so big that the UFC built special reinforced Octagon.

When these two mammoths were scheduled to fight the first time, I made my prediction http://rebelref.com/2009/10/19/ufc106-forecast-carwin-beats-lesnar/ Now that the fight is finally here, the potential outcome isn’t as clear as it once was.

Shane Carwin is entirely too focused on a knockout.  To recognize the negative effect of that, then look no further than Dan Henderson’s loss to Jake Shield in April.  When facing a wrestling machine like Lesnar, takedown defense can be your best friend.  Carwin has indicated he has worked on his wrestling but you can see it in his eyes that his striking has dominated his training camp.

Everyone knows he can punch so he’s not surprising anyone.  The same goes without saying Brock Lesnar will use his wrestling to neutralize Carwin’s striking.  It’s all the more reason for Carwin to emphasize on his defense so it can set up more knockout opportunities.

Lensar has left no stone unturned while training for his title defense.  His newfound maturity has evolved him both as a person and as a fighter. Instead of working on his strengths, Lesnar has elected to work on his weaknesses.  Becoming a complete fighter is the best foil for a man like Carwin.  Lesnar acknowledges this and has worked hard for his chance to prove it.  Lesnar has made the right changes in his camp which is a scary thought for challengers like Carwin.

With all that being said…

Pick:  Shane Carwin

Call me crazy but I still think all the training in the world can’t fix a chin.  I don’t believe Lesnar has one.  Even if Lesnar does get Carwin down and smothers him, I believe Shane will ultimately survive.  Carwin should have many opportunities to find Lesnar’s chin and test it.  It’s one test Lesnar won’t pass.  Carwin will tag Lesnar and Lesnar will crumble.  Just like all of Carwin’s victims.  Carwin will lose one day but he’s waiting too long for this one.  He’s hungry.  Carwin by KO.

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