UFC106 Forecast: Carwin Beats Lesnar

For the first time Brock Lesnar will have a fair fight on his hands with his physical equal in Shane Carwin.

For the first time Brock Lesnar will have a fair fight on his hands with his physical equal in Shane Carwin.

I do not know former two-time UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir personally.  I couldn’t tell you the names of his children.  I can’t tell you what his favorite television show is and I can’t name his favorite ice cream flavor.  One thing I can tell you is we both agree Shane Carwin will defeat Brock Lesnar at UFC106.

I agree with Mir that UFC heavyweight champion Lesnar will not be able to bully the equally as large Carwin as he did with Mir.  For the first time in Lesnar’s career he will face someone as monstrous as he is.  When that natural advantage is taken away from Lesnar it will be interesting to see how he handles it.  The hulking Carwin will make things uncomfortable for Lesnar.

Gabriel Gonzaga questioned Carwin’s punching power. Then he became Carwin’s latest 1st round KO victim.

Gabriel Gonzaga questioned Carwin’s punching power. Then he became Carwin’s latest 1st round KO victim.

One thing fans love about Shane Carwin are his very heavy hands.  His wrecking ball mitts can end a fight quicker than it takes for Bruce Buffer to make his cheesy “I-will-forever-be-in-my-more-talented-brother’s-shadow” announcements.  Just ask Carwin’s opponents.  All of them have been stopped in the 1st round.  Lesnar doesn’t like to get hit.  Just watch the early moments of the 2nd round in his rematch with Mir and you can clearly see the effect on him from Mir tagging him.  Mir got Lesnar’s attention in the 1st round too although Lesnar would never admit it.  Lesnar’s body language said it all.  Carwin’s power is unforgiving and can put anyone on Queer Street.  Carwin should be regarded as the better striker.  Lesnar’s chin has never been checked before but Carwin may be the just the man to do it.

Lesnar holds an advantage on the ground as a former NCAA Division I wrestling champion.  Carwin is a Division II champion.  There’s no denying there is a difference between the two divisions but shared wrestling partners suggest there is little disparity between Lesnar and Carwin.

More and more Lesnar’s familiar advantages are slipping.  Carwin has enough wrestling credentials to suggest this fight will remain standing longer, which works to his advantage.  Not to mention he should also have good enough takedown defense to fend off Lesnar’s bull rushing attacks.

The biggest knock on Carwin is that he has never seen the 2nd round in any of his 11 fights but that is no fault of his own.

If Lesnar wants to avoid the smelling salts he’ll try to keep Carwin on the ground which may not be as easy as it was against the much smaller Mir.

If Lesnar wants to avoid the smelling salts he’ll try to keep Carwin on the ground which may not be as easy as it was against the much smaller Mir.

The chief concern regarding Carwin’s chances is the fact he continues to hold on to his primary profession as an engineer.  Brock Lesnar is a full-time fighter.  While Carwin is training around his work schedule, Lesnar’s only focus is beating Carwin.  He works towards it all day while Carwin delicately balances his cage life with his home life.

It is not uncommon for fighters to hold on to their original means of employment until their fighting careers really take off.  Although at this stage, on the verge of a championship fight, Carwin’s double dipping could lead to disastrous results.

Shane Carwin is too smart to allow that to happen.  Lesnar is the company’s cash cow these days and Carwin knows full well what knocking off the beast of Lesnar will do for his future.  Brock Lesnar made the heavyweights relevant again to fight fans and Carwin is ready to reap the benefits of it.

The odds makers have Carwin as a 2-1 underdog due to Lesnar’s advantages on paper. The savage Lesnar has everyone wondering if there is any stopping him.  His recent demolitions of Heath Herring, Randy Couture and Frank Mir are good reasons to assess that…on paper.

There is no denying what Lesnar has been able to accomplish in such a short time in the sport.  It is truly astonishing, and this post will be in the minority in saying this, but Carwin has the intangibles to upset Lesnar.  Also Lesnar’s overconfidence may very well be his undoing. The man, who was once promoted as “The Next Big Thing” in the WWE, is about to receive his next big reality check.


3 Responses to “UFC106 Forecast: Carwin Beats Lesnar”

  1. cookster76 Says:

    Nice write up but i have to disagree – lesnar will stop carwin. Carwin is not as big as lesnar – no one in the HW division is. Lesnar cuts to make the HW limit, not sure if Carwin does the same but he is certainly a smaller man and i wouldnt be surprised if on fight day Lesnar comes in at 300lbs +!!

    Against Gonzaga Carwin got tagged early and looked in trouble. Yes he has very heavy hands but so does lesnar! Technically carwin is a better striker, but i dont see this fight going carwins way at all!

    Looking forward to the match and i guess we’ll see who’s called it right come fight day 🙂

    • Dallas O'Malley Says:

      Well at least we agree on one thing: this fight is not going the distance.

      Both men have been reported to weigh around 280-290lbs around fight time. Lesnar looks a bit bigger because he is more top heavy where as Carwin is more evenly built. Even if Lesnar is slightly larger, Carwin will still be the biggest man Lesnar has ever faced up to this point. He’ll have to rely on more skill and execution than his usual size advantage. That is not Lesnar’s forte.

      Lesnar has power but his shots are more plodding than crisp. Carwin is not polished by definition but he is Lensar’s superior in that aspect. Everybody gets caught and Lesnar was lucky enough that Mir went for that knee that allowed him to take him down easily against the cage then just lay on him for a couple of seconds till he shook the cobwebs out.

      The fight is just over a month away and the more I evaluate the fight the more excited I get. It’s going to be a thrilling fight for as long as it lasts. I look forward to hearing from you soon after the fight is finished. Thank you for your feedback.

  2. The only things suspect about lesnar are his chin and his ko power. mir did tag him and anyone who disagrees that lesnar did not change tunes after being tagged obviously needs glasses. that being said carwin needs not to land a clean shot to rock anybody. it seems that if that fist lands anywhere above the neck.. your not going to be the same.. might not put you right out.. but its alot more devistating then lesnars punches in any form. There is only 2 possible outcomes of this fight. it is Carwin by KO. or brock by lay and pray. but another thing to take into consideration is that with the lay and pray style in a title fight.. he will have 5 chances to start standing.. thats 5 chances to land any real hit… its good odds. Gonzaga has big KO power with his strikes and he showed it with carwin. lesnar has shown no capabilities of having any kind of one punch power. i dont see brock finishing carwin unless its by reff stopage or judges. also looking into there wrestling backround. Lesnar is a division higher this is true.. but after college he moved to the WWE.. witch in no way helped his wrestling skills.. if anything it just kept the bills payed and nothing changed. where as carwin went on to teach pro wrestling for a few years.. Carwin really could have the higher wrestling pedigree.. we just dont see it. lesnars wrestling looks great. but its easy to look great when your freakishly strong and big. carwin walks around at 295. drops to 265. and then is back up to 280 on fight day. brock only usualy comes back in about 10 pounds heavyer on fight day. and only holding 1″ on height. and none in the reach department. lesnar will his hands full to say the least.

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